2013 Predictions – One Point of View

When John Russo at ARC and founder of the USIBD pinged me about my late December blog on predictions for 2013 I had to tell him that I had not received any response. After a little encouragement he agreed to provide what I think you will find are a very thought provoking set of ideas.

1) Interior mobile continues to gain traction, but the cost will need to match that of a static scanner before it is adopted in any significant numbers. The market simply won’t bear the cost of $100k+ scanners – even for mobile.

2) Software as a Service, SaaS will continue to grow in large markets or for developers with monopolies such as Microsoft and Autodesk, but developers that specialize in smaller markets such as LiDAR will struggle to get their customers to accept this form of pricing.

3) 2013 will see a significant increase in the adoption of LiDAR by architects, engineers and contractors, but the majority of owners will still be reluctant, viewing the cost as unnecessary and opting to take their chances on change orders downstream.

4) No significant paradigm shift as we saw with the introduction of the FARO Focus 3D, but there may be one for hardware in 2014.

5) The opportunity exists for a progressive thinking software developer to shake up the market with a similar low cost offering for point cloud processing/ modeling software to rapidly capture a significant portion of the market share much like FARO did with the Focus, but are they willing to chance this risky strategy? We’ll see.

6) Augmented reality will begin to make its accent in the market place of early adopters, but it has a ways to go before practical applications that the market values become "reality".

7) Photogrammetry will make more progress. Expect more consumer grade solutions to appear that whittle away at the perceived value uneducated consumers have of service providers. This technology will not replace LiDAR as it is too dependent upon lighting conditions and will not meet the more stringent accuracies required for higher levels of design grade data.

8) The USIBD will continue to grow its membership and will obtain greater recognition in the industry. As the market for 3D data and reality capture evolves the demand for the standards and education being developed by the organization will increase.

9) Over the next three years we will see more industry organizations forming alliances in an attempt to reach complimentary markets and grow their respective membership bases. This will greatly benefit the industry.

10) Tablet devices will continue to erode the market share of traditional desktop and laptops, but they won’t replace them any time soon. Hardware developers will start to integrate their function into their product offering.

11) We will continue to see advancements in automated feature extraction and target – less registration.

12) Developers offering software rentals will increase. There are simply too many pieces of software needed to process point cloud data. Company budgets are reaching their limit with the number of different software packages they can purchase and pay maintenance on, as well as provide training for.

About the Author

John Russo

John Russo, AIA ... John M. Russo, AIA, is an experienced architect and entrepreneur. He founded Architectural Resource Consultants (ARC), a firm that has provided outsourced architectural services to the architectural, engineering, construction and facilities management (AEC+FM) communities since 1997. Under his leadership, ARC has grown into a preferred outsourcing partner and is widely used by many of the industry's leading organizations. With more than 26 years of professional experience, including tenure with Taylor and Ware Malcomb Architects, Mr. Russo has developed his passion for as-built documentation of buildings into a thriving award winning business. At ARC, Mr. Russo successfully led his team in a nationwide competition for a 5 year, $30 million IDIQ contract with the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) for Nationwide Laser Scanning Services. Mr. Russo is an active member of the Orange County Chapter of the American Institute of Architects (AIA), serves the AIA Orange County Chapter in the development and maintenance of the organization's website, and is one of the founding members of the Orange County IT/CAD Manager's Technology Roundtable. He also is a member of the BuildingSMART Alliance. Mr. Russo holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration from California State University, Fullerton and an Associate of Arts degree in Architecture from Orange Coast College. He is a Registered Architect in the State of California.
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